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Speculation is Infectious. Speculation is another name for Anticipation that entices people to put there or there forefathers money at stake in commodity and money markets. Not just there, rather everywhere.

My emphasis today is strongly on the financial markets as countless people tend to make fortunes or loose them in minutes and seconds. That's how volatile the markets are now. My story of speculation started in mid July-mid August 2011 in Austria, Europe. I was watching Bloomberg T.V, when Greece was declaring it's insolvency asking for a bail out package. I did not really understand what it meant, all i knew was that Greece was BROKE.  Maybe, the accent of the Host had me glued to the show. I showed somewhat interest in the content being delivered by him and one thing i understood, was the analogy by which Gold and Crude worked in Worldwide Markets.Gold and Crude shared an inverse relationship like foes who would kill each other if they met. If one rose, the other stooped. I came back and started observing the movements and volatility of these two commodities. As long as i can remember, when Gold rose from INR 21000 PER 10 GRAMS TO INR 28000 PER 10 GRAMS, Crude which was trading at 5200 slipped down to 4800 respectively. Speculating the movements of these commodities during this specific time and seeing them happen gave me a certain amount of confidence regarding my understanding about the Markets.

I see the markets as i write today and every analogy, every theorem, every speculative formula, every movement on the basis of anticipation seems to fail.Gold and Crude seem to be Bff's (Best Friend Forever), both showing a mighty Price Rise. Allow me to say, I have never witnessed the Indian Rupee being ripped apart so badly. I was never a direct investor, but a direct opinion went from my end to the people close, who would count on it.

But today, i dare not pass an Opinion, for i am so very not trusting the market. I will instead, pass an opinion to myself and watch the screens and Television to reconfirm my anticipations. A close uncle just lost INR 86,00,000 while trading in Gold when Gold had a slip from INR 32000 PER 10 GRAMS  TO INR 26000 PER 10 GRAMS . 

And today as i write, Gold trades at INR 32900 PER 10 GRAMS, USD = INR is 1 = 64.95 and Crude trades at 7000.

Investors, Please BE SAFE!! Because what happens often with many is that people tend to play beyond there limits. I am reminded of a Hindi Sher which is a little romantic but fits in perfectly with the Investor's sentiments. And it says,

Paaon Phailaaye to dekhi nahee chaadar humne
Tujh ko chaaha toh aukaat se badh kar chaaha

Here's wishing you Happy days and importantly, Happy nights. Investors quite often loose out on a good night sleep. 

Happy and Safe Trading!!


 Dimpesh Rajani









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